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During the UK Brexit campaign the Remain side failed to put forward many positive reasons for the UK remaining in the EU. Instead they decided to focus on negative predictions about the economy in the event of a vote to leave. One of these warnings focused on the UK housing market, they predicted house prices would drop significantly leaving home owners in negative equity. To test this prediction I scraped some house price data back in June 2016 about one week before the referendum. Now that we are six months on from the referendum I ran the same code to gather up to date data and compared the two datasets.
These are small data sets so require some caution when drawing conclusions but they do indicate a definite trend which gives me some confidence in the data. Area 1 = Carrickfergus, Northern Ireland Prperty Type June Price December Price %change apartment 87713 108899 +24 bungalow 142125 165572 +16 detached house 213521 244081 +14 semi-detached house 108414 116005 + 7 terrace house 85176 80359 - 6 (prices are in pounds sterling) Area = Glengormley, Northern Ireland Prperty Type June Price December Price %change apartment 92227 96550 +5 bungalow 153709 163346 +6 detached house 192498 197158 +2 semi-detached house 117517 114188 - 3 terrace house 95246 96156 +1 Overall the change is a positive increase in the average price for most house types. The average house price from these figures has incresed from 128814 pounds to 138231pounds, approximately a 7% increase. These figures are in quite good agreement with the overall trend reported else where, for example the Belfast Telegraph.
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