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Brexit and the housing market

12/24/2016

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During the UK Brexit campaign the Remain side failed to put forward many positive reasons for the UK remaining in the EU. Instead they decided to focus on negative predictions about the economy in the event of a vote to leave. One of these warnings focused on the UK housing market, they predicted house prices would drop significantly leaving home owners in negative equity. To test this prediction I scraped some house price data back in June 2016 about one week before the referendum. Now that we are six months on from the referendum I ran the same code to gather up to date data and compared the two datasets.
These are small data sets so require some caution when drawing conclusions but they do indicate a definite trend which gives me some confidence in the data.

Area 1 = Carrickfergus, Northern Ireland

Prperty Type                June Price             December Price            %change
apartment                     87713                    108899                           +24
bungalow                      142125                  165572                           +16
detached house            213521                  244081                           +14
semi-detached house   108414                  116005                            + 7
terrace house                85176                    80359                             - 6              
​ 
(prices are in pounds sterling)

Area  = Glengormley, Northern Ireland

Prperty Type                June Price             December Price            %change
apartment                     92227                    96550                              +5
bungalow                      153709                  163346                            +6
detached house            192498                  197158                            +2
semi-detached house   117517                   114188                            - 3
terrace house                95246                    96156                              +1             

Overall the change is a positive increase in the average price for most house types. The average house price from these figures has incresed from 
128814 pounds to 138231pounds, approximately a 7% increase.

These figures are in quite good agreement with the overall trend reported else where, for example the Belfast Telegraph.


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